Unemployment

In November, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.6% from 9% in October. Democrats have praised this decline in unemployment as a hopeful trend in a seemingly recovering economy. However, the Romney administration did not hesitate to address the decline in unemployment as a reminder of a malfunctioning labor field. Romney released a statement explaining that unemployment has remained above 8% throughout the thirty-four months of Obama’s tenure as president, which is a record high spell since the Great Depression (Richard W. Stevenson). Although unemployment as fallen from a high 10.1% under the Obama administration, Romney’s statement also noted, “The Obama administration may have come to accept such a high level of joblessness as the new normal. I will never accept it” (Richard W. Stevenson). Stephanie Condon of CBS News recounts a statement made by Republican House Speaker John Boehner, “Any job creation is welcome news, but the jobless rate in this country is still unacceptable. As you may remember, the Obama administration promised unemployment would stay below eight percent if its 'stimulus' was enacted. That promise has gone unfulfilled."

 

President Obama, rightfully hesitant to celebrate an 8.6% unemployment rate, draws on the steady creation of new jobs, “Despite some strong headwinds this year, the American economy has now created, in the private sector, jobs for the past 21 months in a row” (Richard W. Stevenson). Democrats are strategically highlighting the rise in jobs coupled with a declining unemployment rate as evidence of a healing economy. However, GOP candidates have reached out to potential supporters, claiming that these slight improvements do not outweigh the Obama administrations failure to substantially stimulate the economy. Mitt Romney also released a statement reading, "To me, the fact that so many millions of Americans are unemployed only highlights the urgent need for a fundamental change in the direction of our country... This is not exactly the hope and change that the American people bargained for” (Stephanie Condon).

Since the 1930’s, no president has been re-elected with an unemployment rate as high as today’s. However, if the unemployment rate continues to drop, historical precedent is in favor of the Obama administration.  Unemployment peaked two years ago at a staggering 10.1% and has not been as low as 8.6% since the beginning of Obama’s presidency in March 2009. In a similar situation, Ronald Reagan was re-elected in 1984 after unemployment was at a high 10.8% and fell to 8.5% one year from Election Day (Richard W. Stevenson).

Unfortunately for Democratic supporters, Obama does not project a decrease in unemployment reminiscent of the 1984 Reagan election. The White House suggested that unemployment may rise back to 9% by January 2012. Consequently, an increase in joblessness will likely be perceived as a sign of irreparable backtracking under the Obama administration. As seen in 1992, President George Bush was defeated in his run for re-election as unemployment rose to 7.8% in June before falling back to 7.3% on Election Day that year (Richard W. Stevenson). Therefore, precedent suggests that voters become skeptical and apprehensive whenever economic factors become pertinent issues within an election.

Works Cited: Richard W. Stevenson. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/03/us/politics/jobless-numbers-spur-competing-political-narratives.html?ref=politics.

Stephanie Condon. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57335597-503544/gop-hammers-obama-despite-lower-unemployment-rate/.

No More Cain.

As of December 3, GOP candidate Herman Cain has officially suspended his presidential bid due to “hurtful and false allegations” (CNN Wire Staff). These “false allegations” refer to sexual harassment suits brought on by Cain’s former colleagues, Sharon Bialek and Karen Kraushaar, during his 1990’s tenure as head of the National Restaurant Association. More recently however, a woman named Ginger White has come forward claiming to have sustained a “very casual” affair with Cain for thirteen years, despite his marital status (CNN Wire Staff).Attempting to defend himself, Cain explained to the New Hampshire Union Leader that he has been financially supporting White with her “month to month bills,” denying any physical sexual relationship. Cain commented in a Fox News interview, "I send checks to a lot of people; I help a lot of people. That in itself is not proof. So the other allegation in terms of it being a 13-year physical relationship, that is her words against my word" (CNN Wire Staff). In response to Cain’s decision to drop out of the race, White’s attorney delivered a statement on her behalf, "Ginger White respects Mr. Cain's decision regarding his campaign and indeed would have respected any decision he made. That being said, she is disappointed that he has not apologized for the public statements he has made about her and other women who have spoken out” (CNN Wire Staff).

Cain publicized the suspension of his campaign exactly one month prior to the Iowa caucuses, which are scheduled for January 3. Prior to the announcement, Cain admittedly reported a steady decline in donations and campaign contributions directly following the media’s disclosure of the unfaithful allegations brought on by Mrs. White. A Des Moines Register poll exhibited a decline in Cain supporters from 23% to a low 8% of likely Republican Iowa caucus-voters (CNN Wire Staff). Respondents affirmed that Cain had lost their support due to the several sexual harassment allegations, as well as his consistent inability to adequately answer questions concerning his stance on issues (CNN Wire Staff).

New Hampshire Republican officials who have previously pledged their support for Cain have begun reconsidering their choice. Cain’s most prominent supporter, former GOP state party chair Jack Kimball, has decided to base his decision on the candidate that Cain chooses to endorse (CNN Wire Staff).

Cain exclaimed during a press conference in Atlanta, “I am not going to be silenced and I will not go away.” The CNN Wire Staff also explained Cain’s description of his “Plan B: A website, TheCainSolutions.com, through which he will continue to advocate for his platform.”

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachman, also in the running for the GOP chair, stated in regards to Cain’s dropout, "Herman Cain provided an important voice to this process. His ideas and energy generated tremendous enthusiasm for the conservative movement at a time it was so desperately needed to restore confidence in our country” (CNN Wire Staff).

During the press conference in Atlanta, Cain assured his supporters that his political career would not be crippled by these allegations. Despite the harsh conditions in which his current campaign has been derailed, Cain has declared that he is at “peace with God” and at “peace with his wife” (The CNN Wire Staff).

Works Cited: The CNN Wire Staff. http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/03/election/2012/cain-campaign/index.html?hpt=hp_t2