The “Inevitable Candidate”

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is likely to remain the dominant nominee for the Republican candidacy throughout the primary elections. However, polls suggest that Romney has not secured his seat as the prevailing candidate just yet. Polls in Iowa reveal, “24% of registered Republicans say they are backing Romney, who's making his second bid for the presidency, with Cain, the former Godfather's Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, at 21%. Romney’s three-point margin is within the surveys sampling error” (Paul Steinhauser). The polls results, a three-point gap separating leading nominees, highlights the “undecided” stance of Republican voters.

Yet, many perceive Mitt Romney as the “inevitable candidate” because he is regarded as the “candidate to beat Obama.” Romney has established assertiveness throughout the Republican debates and cultivated a tight knit campaign that has potential to win the presidential election. However, precedent suggests the “most likely to win” nominee is not necessarily accepted as the most appropriate candidate to represent Party policies. In 2004, Howard Dean, Democratic presidential nominee, emerged as the party’s most progressive candidate (Joe Trippi). Dean’s anti-war, anti-Bush stance sat well with Democrats who did not support the Washington Democrats decision to “go-along” with the Bush administration’s Iraq war (Joe Trippi). However, the overall Democratic Party sentiment conveyed Senator John Kerry as the most “likely to win” against Bush. The Iraq war became a major issue during the election, and Kerry’s pro-war stance did not gain him excessive popularity. A poll taken at the 2004 Democratic National Convention found, ““Eighty percent of [delegates] polled said they opposed the decision to go to war against Iraq at the time it began, and 95 percent say they now oppose the war. A majority of 63 percent want U.S. troops out within two years; only one in four say the United States should stay as long as it takes to achieve administration goals” (Joe Trippi).

Romney is currently facing similar adversities and is the subject of Republican voter speculation concerning his campaigns health policy. “RomneyCare” is regarded as the genesis of the highly disputed national “ObamaCare” plan. If Conservative Republicans feel “disenfranchised” by Romney’s proposed health plan and his puzzling stance on abortion, they may display ambivalent and apathetic views toward the GOP’s nominees. Matt Kibbe, president of the Tea Party aligned FreedomWorks, points out that voter turnout may be effected if Republicans do in fact feel “disenfranchised” by the lack of representation concerning their political stance on popular issues, such as abortion and healthcare (Joe Trippi). In September 2004, sixty-five percent of Bush supporters claimed to be “very enthusiastic” about their candidate, whereas only forty-two percent of Kerry supports displayed strong enthusiasm (Joe Trippi). This discrepancy in voter enthusiasm compliments Matt Kibbe’s speculation, that if conservative voters are disenfranchised or unenthused by their candidate, than voter turnout may be significantly effected. One Wall Street Journal/NBC poll revealed, forty percent of Republicans stated that they would vote for Romney “with some reservations.” Also, Public Policy Polling discovered that sixty-nine percent of Romney’s supporters claimed that they “might end up supporting someone else in the primary” (Joe Trippi).

Governor Mitt Romney, the “inevitable candidate,” may in fact become the Republican candidate for the 2012 election. However, the commonly noted cliché, history repeats itself, may have relevance concerning Republican support and voter turnout during the general election.

Works Cited: Paul Steinhauser, CNN Deputy Political Director. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/26/poll-romney-at-or-tied-for-top-spot-in-first-4-states-to-vote/?hpt=hp_bn3.

Joe Trippi, Fox News. http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/10/24/romney-will-wind-up-as-gop-nominee-but-will-party-faithful-have-regrets/#ixzz1cDGGzQwd.